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Back to El envejecimiento, razón de peso para las reformas

José Luis Álvarez , School of Economic and Business Sciences , University of Navarra

Aging, a major reason for reforms

Fri, 07 Jan 2011 09:30:08 +0000 Published in Expansion

As is the case every year at this time of year, we find everywhere balance sheets for the year that has just ended and prospects for the new year that has just begun. Moreover, if the object of analysis is the Spanish Economics , we see that the conclusions are very clear and, except for nuances of Degree, unanimous.

Not only have we experienced one of the worst years in our recent history, but we have ahead of us twelve months full of difficulties that will require the adoption of unpopular but necessary policies. This is the case of the pension reform, an ongoing, highly controversial process, which, in the short term deadline, is intended to send a signal to appease financial markets that are very suspicious of our economic policy.

But it is in the medium and long term deadline that it is really aimed at reinforcing the viability of a pay-as-you-go system that will have to withstand the onslaught of an irreversible phenomenon: the aging of the population.

The economic effects of an increasingly aging population should be taken very seriously. What better time than now, when the turn of the decade invites us to look to the future. Because, although this phenomenon will reach its peak in 30 years' time, its consequences will be felt gradually over the course of that time.

They will also have far-reaching effects, which will force us to make this unknown demographic status a cross-cutting element of economic policy. As the Spanish population grows older, not only will there be difficulties for the financial sustainability of pensions. Another potential problem associated with aging will be that of increased health expense care, especially if the increase in life expectancy and issue of older people leads to an increase in the prevalence of chronic diseases.

Although healthcare reform is a complex topic , for which there are already proposals on the table, it would probably be a good committee to promote prevention rather than overemphasis on treatment. More serious, however, will be the contraction of the working-age population caused by the aging process, with a direct negative impact on economic growth. Several policies could address the problem, and all of them in the same direction as structural reforms aimed at overcoming current problems and changing productive model .

In order to achieve the best use and allocation of the scarcer factor work, reaching higher fees of employment and activity, the labor market should be made more flexible in line with the flexicurity model of other nations. Policies that facilitate the reconciliation of work and family life staff would also contribute to this efficiency gain, especially for Spanish women, who find conditions that lead them to resolve the work-maternity dilemma with a labor participation and fertility fees simultaneously below that of other European countries.

This more modern labor framework would also stimulate productivity and, therefore, growth. Of course, a better educational system would be a basic ingredient in any recipe for productivity growth. And it would not be out of place for all these reforms to be topped off with an immigration policy consistent with all of them, which would allow for the orderly entrance of workers capable of integrating into a new patron saint of growth.

There will be many more economic areas affected by the aging of the population. Aggregate patterns in consumption decisions, savings, risk-taking, etc. will be modified, which will have repercussions - not always easily foreseeable - on public accounts, financial markets or the external sector. It is therefore necessary to tackle the reforms that will restore budgetary stability, strengthen our financial system and increase our competitiveness.

Age certainly makes us wiser. But Spanish society cannot wait until it gets older to make decisions and put in place measures to face such a profound demographic change with such varied consequences for its wellbeing at internship . Time is running against us.