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Javier Elizalde, Professor of Economics, University of Navarra

Is a recession starting?

Thu, 11 Aug 2011 09:00:43 +0000 Published in La Razón

Is the world on the verge of a new recession?

The economic problems faced by the world's Economics do not mean that we are on the verge of a new recession. The current status leads us to a revision to leave of economic growth expectations, evidencing a slowdown but not a recession.

What are the advantages and disadvantages of Trichet's bond purchases?

The bond purchases have served to alleviate the financing problems of the governments of the selling countries. subject An example is Italy, which yesterday managed to place 6.75 billion euros on the market at an average interest rate of 2.95%, well below what it would have achieved without the intervention of the Central Bank. History tells us sample that we have always come out of crises by monetizing debt, which in the medium term deadline generates inflation. For this reason, and to prevent countries from overspending, the European Central Bank established in its statutes at its creation that it would not resort to this internship, but the current status requires it. In any case, the European Central Bank's value of sovereign debt, at around 0.5% of the GDP of the countries of the Monetary Union, is well below that of the central banks of the major economies (6.5% in the United States, 14% in the United Kingdom and 16% in Japan).

What are the advantages and disadvantages of maintaining rates in the USA?

The subject interest rate is a reflection of the economic situation. The status in which the United States finds itself and the forecasts for its behavior in the short and medium term deadline call for low interest rates, whose goal is to accelerate Economics by encouraging consumption and investment. The main drawback is that the weakness shown by the world's leading Economics will discourage the stock market, but this effect is not likely to last long.