While Netanyahu was congratulating himself on the fall of Bashar al-Assad and claiming that his decision to fight to the end against Hamas and Hezbollah had contributed to "reshaping the Middle East", Israel was launching the largest bombing campaign on Syrian soil since the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

The Israeli army has also carried out an incursion to establish a buffer zone between the Golan Heights and Syrian territory, seizing the highest and most strategic terrain on the Syrian border.

Israel's statements and actions are evidence that the Hebrew state welcomes the fall of a piece core topic of the Iranian-driven Axis of Resistance, while being wary of the rebel groups that have taken power in Damascus. Better safe than sorry: as long as the intentions of the new Syrian government are unclear, Israel is trying to make sure it has no teeth to bite with.

The 400 targets attacked have destroyed, according to the Israel Defense Forces, around 80% of the military capacity of the former Assad army. Israel also seeks with these strikes to maintain freedom of action in Syrian skies for years to come (the first targets to be destroyed were all anti-aircraft defense systems).

As for ground incursions, they pursue several objectives. The first is to secure the most strategic areas, from which attacks can be launched towards Syria or Israel in a more propitious way. The second is to create an exclusion zone to serve as a buffer between the two countries (and thus avoid a surprise like the Hamas offensive on Israel on October 7, 2023). The third is to acquire a bargaining chip for possible negotiations with the new Syrian regime: if Damascus wishes to recover these territories, it will have to show goodwill and negotiate with Israel. A new case in the well-known Israeli "peace for territory" diplomacy.

Thus, Israel celebrates the fall of Assad because it puts an end to the noose that Iran had been patiently knotting around the Israeli borders (in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria). Tehran's pincer is broken and rendered useless. From the point of view of its major conflict with the Islamic Republic, the collapse of Assad is a strategic victory for Israel.

However, those who have succeeded in defeating Assad and Iran in Syria are not actors susceptible to a friendly attitude towards Israel. Hence the precautions of the Hebrew state: if Syria is to fall into anarchy or become a jihadist state, may it lack the tools to harm Israel.

With respect to the Islamic Republic, Israel's victory over it in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria may result in a greater threat to the Hebrew state. The Axis of Resistance - of which only the constellation of pro-Iranian militias grouped under the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq and the Houthis in northern Yemen remain intact - was intended as a tool both to achieve Tehran's regional hegemony and to deter a possible attack on Iran.

The idea was that if the United States or Israel ever dared to bomb or invade Iran, Tehran would activate the Axis of Resistance to plunge the region into chaos. Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen would be dormant volcanoes ready to erupt. With three of these volcanoes already deactivated, the Islamic Republic would now need another viable deterrent tool .

The simplest and most radical solution to this problem created by the setbacks of the last year would be to abandon ambiguity and get hold of the nuclear bomb. The precedents are clear: the only regimes and countries that survive are those with this subject arsenal. Those that have given up their nuclear programs or failed to complete them - Libya, Iraq, Syria and Ukraine - have suffered invasions and regime changes.

Tehran knows that completing its nuclear program would be a point of no return. On the one hand, it would offer guarantees to prevent a foreign attack on its territory. But, on the other hand, it would mean international isolation. Iran is not North Korea. It is not a country that can easily become a state disconnected from the rest of the world. The economic and social problems it would cause could trigger revolts that would overthrow the regime. Other possible ramifications could lead to the development of military nuclear programs in Saudi Arabia or Turkey, something that would not serve Iran's interests either.

The Islamic Republic is therefore facing a difficult dilemma as to how to proceed in order to restore the balance in the face of the loss of Damascus. Israel, on the other hand, awaits the development of the possible unfavorable implications of its victory over Iran in Syria.