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Pedro Lozano Bartolozzi, Professor Emeritus of the University of Navarra

Hurricane Trump

Thu, 19 Jan 2017 16:58:00 +0000 Published in The Courier

Ladies and gentlemen, the big show, the reality show, that has the world in suspense, is about to begin! With the imposing backdrop of the monumental Capitol building behind and the esplanade of a Mall packed with an expectant crowd, at noon tomorrow, January 20, Donald Trump will become the most powerful man on earth.

"I do solemnly swear that I will faithfully execute the position of president of the United States, and will faithfully preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States to the best of my Schoolsability." That is the established legal formula. At first the ceremony took place on March 4, the day George Washington did it, until the complex transition from Herbert Hoover to Franklin D. Roosevelt changed the date in 1933. The entire protocol was collected in the Amendment issue 20.

When it came to taking possession of position, only John Quincy Adams in 1825 put his hand on a law book and not on the Bible and Franklin Pierce, in 1853, to affirm instead of swearing an oath.

The television audience, without limits of time or borders, will watch the live broadcast of Trump's investiture. It will be a sort of pharaonic enthronement before millions of media citizens. All possibilities are open in this dangerous historical stage which is now beginning and which will affect first of all the Americans, but also the entire international system.

Several decades ago, Indira Ghandi uttered a phrase that was as poetic as it was accurate: "In today's interdependent world, you cannot shake a flower without disturbing a star.

In his outrageous and abrupt press conference on the 11th, Trump did not wave flowers or talk about the butterfly effect, on the contrary, he was emphatic and blunt. In his barely articulate speech, he lashed out against China, acknowledged Russian cyber interference, humiliated Mexico, disavowed part of the press, implicated the automobile and pharmaceutical industries, promised to dismantle Obama's work, especially healthcare, ceded his business conglomerate to two of his sons in a unique trust, and threatened to build the border wall with Mexico. All this without forgetting to proclaim a protectionism that will impose high tariffs on companies that do not manufacture in the country. At least we must recognize that he is clear about what he is going to do.

Alexis de Tocqueville, French aristocrat and liberal, traveled to the United States and wrote an extraordinarily lucid book, published in 1835, 'Democracy in America'. He admired and valued the institutions and the democratic spirit and the importance of civil society, but also warned of the risks of egalitarianism and majority rule if they do not respect liberties, and of the danger of falling into the personalism of an almost absolute power that degenerates into tyranny.

Interwar Europe suffered from this egalitarian high tide, heightened by the convergence of mass society, institutional disenchantment, economic crisis and caudillist populism.

The problem is further aggravated in North America, as Tocqueville announced, because the president is elected to be a sort of temporary monarch, who has no ministers and no government, but advisors and secretaries of state whom he appoints personally.

Trump was accused of proposing an ultra-conservative team, a fact that seems to be confirmed, with names such as Reine Pribus, president of the Republican National committee for Chief of Staff; Steve Bannon, as national security advisor ; Michael Flynn, general manager of military intelligence; Rex Tillerson, former head of Exxon Mobile as Secretary of State; General James Mattis for Secretary of Defense; General John Kelly for Homeland Security; Rick Perry, former Governor of Texas for Energy; billionaire Wilbur Ross for Commerce and Steve Mnuchin as Secretary of the Treasury. In addition, he has appointed Alabama Senator Jeff Session as Attorney General. He will also be responsible for appointing some 4,000 officials. The vice president will be Mike Pence.

One should not be too surprised by the incorporation of military men into the cabinet, if we take into account that of the 44 presidents, 27 were military officers, among them 11 generals. Of particular note are George Washington himself (1789-1797), Ulysses S. Grant (1869-1877), victor of the Civil War, and Dwight Eisenhower (1953-1963), Allied commander-in-chief in World War II.

The counterweight of the chambers, in this case with a Republican majority, does not seem to be a sufficient brake. It will have to be the vigilance of the media, the reaction of civil society, the pragmatism of the exercise of power and even the internal discussion of the parties, which will stun Trump.

There has been no shortage of accusations of cyber-attacks, blackmail, espionage and even fabrications to discredit the new president.

It is time to wait and see, to give a margin of confidence to this stage that is beginning in such an uproar and that divides the American people as rarely seen before.

In his emotional farewell, Obama entrusted the security of the system to the democratic sentiment of the people. "Our democracy needs us not only when there is an election, but throughout our lives. Impressive words, valid for Americans and for all Democrats.