Six hundred and forty thousand one hundred and fifty-four... and falling! The recent publication of the provisional figures of the Population Register, as of January 1, 2015, shows once again that Navarre is losing population. This is the third consecutive year in which this has occurred and although it is only 636 inhabitants less than a year earlier, the data is very significant, because this trend -which seems to be consolidating- breaks more than a century of uninterrupted growth of the population of Navarre.

It also marks the end of the greatest period of demographic transformation that Navarre has ever experienced. In the last 15 years, thanks to the phenomenon of immigration and a small increase in the birth rate, we have witnessed some of the highest demographic growth years in our history, comparable only to those of the industrialization stage, in the sixties of the last century.

Currently, on the contrary, we find that the economic crisis in which we are immersed has meant that the flows from entrance to Navarre have been greatly reduced and the outflows, very insignificant in the last two decades, have begun to grow strongly. This negative migratory balance in Navarre is basically international, since the balance of population exchanges with other Spanish regions is very balanced.

In the national context, Navarre has lost little population during 2014, both from the point of view of absolute volume (a logical question due to its small size), as well as in relative terms. Compared to a decrease of 0.4% in Spain as a whole, which reaches 1% in several autonomous communities, Navarre has decreased only 0.1% of its population, which places us among the group of regions that have performed better in this period.

However, and beyond the analysis of these data, the question that is of more interest now is whether the demographic trend will be consolidated in the future or is simply a consequence of the emigration caused by the current crisis. Are we facing a purely cyclical population decline or is it the beginning of an evolution that obeys a real change in the demographic cycle, that is the unknown.

There are arguments in both directions. On the one hand, the demographic decline seems to have slowed down or - at least - slowed down. If in 2013 Navarre lost 3,787 inhabitants, this year that figure has been reduced by almost a fifth. It is likely that the return to economic growth and employment will turn the tables.

This possibility is quite plausible, but only in the short term deadline, since in addition to the negative migratory trend, manager of the current population loss, there is another more fundamental aspect that seriously compromises future evolution: the existence of an aging demographic structure.

And it is this aspect that allows us to venture that with or without a return to a positive migratory balance, Navarre must prepare itself for a progressive and practically inexorable reduction in its population. The medium-term projection deadline of the National Statistics high school places us at slightly lower figures than the current ones (635,636 inhabitants in 2029) and it is logical to think that, if fertility patterns do not change significantly, aging will worsen and with it the progressive loss of population.

Are we prepared for this? Are certain basic services, such as health or Education, being correctly dimensioned for the future? Is the housing sector prepared for this foreseeable scenario? Will the new status of stagnation and demographic decline affect all areas of Navarre equally? These are too many questions and, above all, too important not to pay due attention to them.