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J. R. Pin Arboledas, Professor, IESE, University of Navarra

Polyhedral results

Mon, 23 May 2011 11:45:32 +0000 Published in The Economist

The results of 22-M have several readings. For this reason, they could be described as multifaceted. They can be analyzed in economic terms, in terms of territorial balance of power, national cohesion and the emergence of possible new political alternatives. Let us analyze each of them.

Economics : an even weaker government. The Government of Rodríguez Zapatero appears weaker, with the PSOE having lost the elections in issue in terms of votes and councilors; with PP governments in the autonomous communities where it governed with the largest majority and overturns in Castilla-La Mancha, Baleares, Extremadura, Cantabria, Canarias, Aragón, Asturias, Seville, Barcelona, etc. What are they going to do? What will international investors and European leaders think? Will the former think that governing will be more difficult and will increase the spread of Spanish sovereign debt? Will those in power in the Euro Zone think that the Executive will not be able to carry out the reforms and will put more pressure on it? Will the utopian electoralist ZP become entrenched on the left or will he recover his reformist wisdom? In a few weeks we will see the consequences.

The President has made a double mistake. First, his anticipated Withdrawal for reelection has not allowed the PSOE to recover; second, this decision makes it difficult for him to bring forward the elections. He needs to give time to the primaries and to the candidate that comes out of them. All this with investors and Europe watching. He expects an agonizing economic period until 2012, mitigated by summer tourism.

Territorial balance

The balance of territorial power: in favor of the PP. The PP has advanced in many places at the expense of the PSOE. It is the natural wear and tear of a bad management economic crisis. The question is: if there are no early elections, pending the socialist primaries, what will be the role of a winning civil service examination ?

The economic logic would be for the Government to ask for the financial aid of the civil service examination to agree on reforms. The PP will be faced with the dilemma of appearing as unsupportive by refusing or as co-responsible for the unpopular measures. The only alternative will be to escape from the Sadducee trap by asking for an electoral advance, which will be difficult to obtain because it catches the PSOE by surprise.

National cohesion

National cohesion: Madrid, breakwater of Spain and Bildu, does it break Spain? The result of these elections has many readings. One of them is the result of UPyD in Madrid, which will have group in the community, the capital and many city councils.

Another is that the lists of Bildu have been highly voted in Euskalerría. Rosa Díez (Vascongadas) has shown that her offer has been accepted as a Spanishist and as an alternative to the two political forces. Which of the two offers has weighed more? Madrid has said that it believes in Spain, in its existence. Madrid has been once again the breakwater of Spain.

San Sebastián has voted strongly for Bildu (Euskalerría), sovereigntist. In the national electorate as a whole it is not very significant, but the Constitutional Court has given them the possibility of entering the Basque consistories. Will these elected representatives be prudent or will they give the magistrates occasions to repent?

New alternatives

New alternatives: 15-M, a permanent movement? The decision of the Puerta del Sol assembly is to stay at least one more week; at the place in Catalonia, until June 15. It seems that they want to stay. Will they succeed? We begin to know some faces of the protest movement. Whenever an alternative appears, it needs to be embodied. Without leaders, there is no organization.

If they appear they could be a different electoral offer to the current panorama. There are a few months between now and the general elections. Economically hard months, with a status of youth unemployment that will give wings to the indignados; especially if the media continue to encourage them. But this will require them to get organized, and that is not easy.

At summary, polyhedral results, in which the PSOE loses and the PP wins, but there is something moving in other alternatives.