For several legislatures, the European Parliament elections have brought with them fears of a rise of radical and populist forces. Election after election, in a prologue style to the polls, Europeans speculate that radicals from both sides of the political spectrum could be decisive in the European Parliament. The upcoming European elections may change this trend.

Historically, elections to the European Parliament have been second-order elections. In many European Union countries, these elections were viewed with the same indifference with which some view the European institutions. According to Dutch professor Claes D. Vreese, the European elections were "second-rate elections" used by the national civil service examination to contest the power of national governments. It was not so much a matter of talking about Europe as of using the European elections to punish the government, and national issues often took precedence over European ones.

This status changed in 2014 with the rise of radical forces. The fear that the most extreme parties could condition the work of the European Parliament increased the relevance of the European elections. First came the rise of the radical left, with formations such as Podemos, Syriza or the 5 Star Movement advocating rapid system change.

Five years later, the rise of reactionary parties, such as Alternative for Germany or the French National Rally, increased the weight of the extreme right in the European Parliament.

On both occasions, the alliance of the center-right and center-left groups isolated the more extreme parties and distanced them from positions of community power.

This center-right, pact-based dynamic will most likely change after June of this year. The European Parliament that emerges from the Community elections will have a markedly right-wing bias, both because of the polls and because of the national realities of the Member States themselves.

Recently published polls predict a significant rise for parties belonging to the right and extreme right groups -European Conservatives and Reformists and Identity and Democracy-.

This increase will increase the number of MEPs in both groups from 125 to 183 and make the two groups the third and fourth largest in the European Parliament, according to a study by committee European External Relations.

This rise practically ties at issue the MEPs within the "super grand coalition" that has governed Europe in the last decade - formed by center-right and center-left - with those outside. In other words: the weight of the extreme right could be decisive in the new Parliament.

Unlike on previous occasions, these forecasts are accompanied by a national status that is also favorable to conservative and extreme right-wing parties. The most recent example of the rise of extreme right-wing parties was seen in Portugal in March, where Chega increased its seats. The support shown by the Portuguese socialists to the conservative candidate , Luís Montenegro, reduced the relevance of the reactionary force, but does not banish the fact that they are the third force in Parliament.

In addition to Portugal, extreme right-wing forces - in many cases Eurosceptic and pro-Russian - occupy the top positions in up to eleven European countries, which puts them in a better position than five years ago to contest the European elections.

This strength of the extreme right in the territories is accompanied by the position held by members of the European People's Party (EPP). Less than a year after the Spanish government slipped away from them, the EPP has regained Luxembourg, Poland and Portugal, joining the eight other countries where center-right politicians dominate the seats of power.

Member state control is vital to secure the nomination of the Commission president, as controlling many countries means having more positions in the European committee , the institution that nominates the candidate. The moves of the current Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, illustrate the relevance of the Member States very well.

Von der Leyen was nominated by surprise for the post in July 2019, two months after the European elections were held and without having been appointed spitzenkandidat by the EPP.

This time, the EPP has indeed nominated her as a candidate for the presidency of the Commission but, as in 2019, she will not contest the elections. Or what amounts to the same thing: the campaign for her re-election will not be decided on June 6-9, but in the negotiations at state level afterwards. test of this is that she has appointed her right-hand man as director of a campaign that some are already labeling as "phantom". It is national power that matters.

The conservative President of the Commission is not the only one to mark her position in the run-up to the European elections. Aware that they will have to reach agreements with the extreme right, some members of the EPP have already begun to take a stand.

It is worth remembering that EU politicians have greatly softened their stance on the far right at the European level. The first country to form a coalition government with reactionaries, that of Wolfgang Schüssel in Austria in 2000, received sanctions from a European committee then chaired by António Guterres.

The possibility that in the next European Parliament the coalition of Christian Democrats, conservatives and the extreme right could win a majority for the first time has led some politicians to set conditions for a possible agreement.

The German Manfred Weber, president of the EPP, declared a few days ago that, under his command, the EPP partners should be in favor of Europe, Ukraine and the rule of law. These statements, far from pleasing his current partners, were very badly received by the Socialist, Liberal and Green groups, which accused the People's Party of surrendering to the extreme right-wing parties.

Certainly, the limits established by Weber leave out some of the formations because of their marked pro-Russian and Eurosceptic character.

However, the fact that the reaction of the center right is not one of total rejection allows us to see hints that something may move in the European institutions after June.