Carlos Barrera del Barrio, Professor of Media and Politics at the School de Comunicación
The fish dies by the mouth
When polls predict close results at the polls, questions of detail can be decisive in deciding the final result . Many analysts have shown that the victory of the PP or the PSOE is, for both Rajoy and Rubalcaba, an intermediate goal of great strategic relevance for the consolidation of their leadership and their policies.
There have been several examples of how slips in the dialectical brawl have truncated the aspirations of candidates in our western democracies: Ségolène Royal against Sarkozy or Miguel Sebastián against Ruiz-Gallardón, to mention two examples close in time and space. The losers in these fights were well scalded before the court of public opinion.
Even the fact that these are -for the voter, but not for the politicians- elections of leave intensity, further enhances the willingness of citizens to punish those who screw up or try to get it out at the wrong time, late and badly. Because it has been noticed and apologies in politics do not usually pay off in the short term deadline. The King also apologized after the incident and accident of his elephant hunting in Botswana and, being benevolent in the trial, there was a division of opinions. The royal image was undoubtedly damaged.
If, in addition, the controversial issue is of such a nature that it can be easily exploited by the main rival to be raised as a distinctive flag and to be wielded as a weapon of attack, the damage tends to increase. When several sectors accused the PP and the PSOE of being the same, the Socialists could not find a better and more mediatic episode to recognize themselves again than the double unfortunate declarations of Arias Cañete.
Machismo is a topic that sells because, like it or not, it is politically incorrect. In politics and electoral campaigns, even the most hidden aspects of the rivals in the race are scrutinized: what they say and don't say, what they do and don't do, what they think or have thought. They are always exposed, and going off the script, by default or excess, has its reputational cost. What better test of the awareness of its possible electoral effect than the concern, palpable although they wanted to conceal it, of the main leaders of the PP after the misfortune! Even the European media have echoed their words in elections that were expected to be so national.
Whether we like it or not, this campaign will go down in history because of Cañete's blunder. The sleepy voter (hesitant, abstentionist or similar) may have been awakened by this shock, and especially the sleepy voter... One man, one vote, yes. But also -permit me the ad hoc expression for this case- one woman, one vote. And machismo, even if it is more of artifice than real, can activate votes. For the time being, it has brought the PSOE and other parties back to life, although... beware, because those fed up with the politicians for life may see in this episode one more reason to become disenchanted with all of them, who never cease to look at their navels and get involved in their own problems, which do not correspond to those of the citizens. Will their pockets or machismo be more important?
In the end, it may turn out that one of the great virtues praised by the popular candidate , his folksiness and loquacity, may turn out to be a boomerang against him and his party. As an expert in fishing matters, the well-known saying that the fish dies by the mouth could be applied.