Antonio Aretxabala, Geologist, University of Navarra, Spain
The L'Aquila judgment, a condemnation of scientific activity
Luciamo Maiani, President of the Italian Commission of assessment for Major Risks, resigned in solidarity with the condemned scientists and civil servant: "I do not see the conditions to be able to work with serenity". He was followed by presidents, vice-presidents, professors, directors of organizations involved in the study of risk, safety on Building, industry, etc. The commotion that has already taken on an international dimension is due to the feeling that the verdict against the Italian scientists is a condemnation of scientific activity, with consequences even more disastrous than the earthquakes themselves. The sentences in Italy do not become effective until at least one appeal is overcome, the scientists will not go to jail immediately, but that does not appease the international academic community .
Among the sentenced experts are the most prestigious geologists and seismologists in Italy, they were part of the Commission for the Prognosis and Prevention of Major Risks, a chain reaction of resignations threatens this entity and the future risk prevention of the most seismic country in Europe, but not least to the way justice is distributed. In the country that invented the scientific knowledge dissemination , the era of informing the population in dribs and drabs is beginning, the new scientific knowledge dissemination of risky subjects such as earthquakes, floods, cyclones, etc., is going to undergo a profound revision in Europe. The advisors of the administrations on subject science will have to endure as intensively as possible the communication on their work, not to give their opinion on their consequences and to receive specific training to deal with the public.
In February 2011 Emanuela Guidoboni an Italian geologist expert, possibly the most brilliant in Europe, who has studied the most relevant historical earthquakes in all the lands overlooking the Mediterranean, including Spain, founded the Euro-Mediterranean Documentation Center on Extreme Events and Disasters (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo di Documentazione Eventi Estremi e Disastri), based in Spoleto, for the scientific, historical and cultural knowledge dissemination of European destructive impacts, a center focused on ending human tragedies.
He presented his most ambitious work on seismic disasters in Italy while Emilia Romagna was shaking, this was possible thanks to years of historical research developed to at least have a catalog of earthquakes in Italy from 462 BC to 2010, today it is the database of INGV, touched by resignations and promises of perpetual silence. In Italy there is a disaster every 4-5 years, even if it is, as in Spain, from not very high magnitudes (5.0 to 5.8); but in his ambitious study project and knowledge dissemination, he has tried to shed light on the causes of the tremendous economic and social weight that seismic disasters have had in Italy during the last 150 years.
The character of the Italian buildings is definitive, 65% are pre-1950, a large presence of old and poor houses or the lack of seismic-resistant standards even when there were already laws, do not seem to have had weight in the judge's decision. The weakness of institutional and political instability have always underestimated the importance of seismic safety enforcement, although again and again they come to light, have scapegoats now been sought in the academic community to content an enraged population, as in the Age average? Another important element, especially in the last 50 years, is the lack of information on the seismic risk in the population. Who calculates the seismic risk without knowing important details of the past? There is a terrible problem of seismic amnesia and lack of quantitative data about its influence on GDP, we would surely be frightened if we knew.
As in Spain, there is no dialogue with historians either, they are also unemployed, the regulations are made by engineers, geologists, physicists, architects..., from where do they extract the data probabilistic and recurrence of the regions? they are the basis of their theoretical postulates; local parishes, diocesan archives, municipal newspaper libraries, are waiting to be at least visited and translated into languages such as basic seismic acceleration. That is why there is a problem of method of assessment of the impacts. The result is that the risk is not revealed to the decision makers, the administrators, but neither to the normal people, the citizens. With the crudeness of a cold database and the subtlety of a historical study Emanuela Guidoboni narrates in her publications 34 seismic disasters that have marked the history of the young Italy. Serious damage and destruction in 1,560 localities, in 10 cities including capitals. In addition there have been 86 other earthquakes of more leave energy, but also destructive.
In Spain, the most famous fault, that of Alhama de Murcia, which has brought so many historical misfortunes to Lorca (documented since January 1579), to the Region of Murcia and to the old Spain, is only 33 years old, it is funny recognizing its gloomy past to say that it was "discovered" in 1979. And what will become of Lorca now that we know it rests on that killer fault, do we evacuate it forever, and what do we do with the meteorologists who did not predict the floods of a few days ago, do we put them in jail? We are talking about economic and social damages for years, for decades, sometimes forever. Lately from Alcorcón there is talk in the media of a "hidden fault" that has generated several tremors in recent months, it is funny and enigmatic to think that important personalities have already stated that the location of Eurovegas is in danger. While thousands of geologists are waiting on the unemployment line or are already in Brazil and Australia. Smoking is a concern, but should we evacuate?
Valladolid is the province that has suffered the least earthquakes, we could all go and live there, only in 2007 a very slight one was detected, nobody felt it, the others have a variable seismic or flooding past. But what if a meteorite falls? would we put the astronomers in jail for not warning us? There are for everything in Spain, they have already fallen: in Rubielos de la Cérida, in Teruel, and in the neighboring Azuara (Zaragoza) where a conference room of the town hall is dedicated to the ancient impacts of asteroids that caused enormous deformations in its crust, a scientific and informative tourist attraction, is it alarmist, thank goodness that Teruel does not exist!