The NATO summit in Madrid on 29 and 30 June will not be just one of many of a similar nature held by the Alliance. First, because it is taking place in the midst of an armed aggression the likes of which, apart from the Balkan war, have not been seen since 1945. Second, and perhaps more importantly, it is expected to approve a new Strategic Concept that will orient the Atlantic Alliance towards the threats it faces in the immediate future.

Russia will certainly occupy an important place at the summit and in the Strategic Concept itself. What has happened in Ukraine, and the possibility that Putin might escalate into an attack on Alliance members, cannot be ignored and indicates that relations between Russia and the Washington Treaty countries have entered a new phase of open confrontation. This may be reflected in the new concept with its expected renewed emphasis on collective defence as NATO's main mission statement and, let's not forget, the raison d'être of the Washington Treaty.

Sweden and Finland emerge in this context as major players, as the Russian threat has overturned their traditional neutrality, prompting both countries to knock on the Alliance's door. agreement According to the Washington Treaty, the formalisation of membership requires a unanimous invitation from the Allies, which at the time of writing was not the case due to Turkey's reservations towards Sweden. The meeting of the leaders of the countries concerned, scheduled for the afternoon of the 28th in Madrid, may pave the way for a advertisement enlargement of the Alliance.

The centrality that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has acquired should not, however, obscure the reality of the complexity and multidimensionality of the threats and risks that the Alliance must address in order to meet the security needs of all its members. Spain, host of the summit, and other Southern European countries, are interested in NATO, beyond rhetoric, taking the concept of 360º security seriously and devoting a similar effort to the risks from North Africa as it does to challenge posed by Russia; the urgency of this threat should not serve to ignore or underestimate the threat from the South, which is more diverse and diffuse, of course, but no less real. The weakness of many North African states favours the development and entrenchment in the region of transnational Islamic terrorist groups working in collusion with criminal organisations involved in the illicit trafficking of narcotics and human beings. The potential of this status to destabilise Europe, beyond the countries bordering the Mediterranean, is high, especially if one takes into account that Russia is taking advantage of the instability of such a sensitive space to position itself in it, for the moment through proxy agents, such as the Russian paramilitary group "Wagner".

Spain is particularly sensitive to instability on the southern shores of the Mediterranean, given that Ceuta, Melilla, the Canary Islands, and the sovereign islands and rocks make it a geographically African nation with direct interests in the area. As is well known, while the island territories are covered by article 6 of the Washington Treaty, the cities of Ceuta and Melilla are outside the NATO territory defined therein article. It may be that the summit's final declaration, or even the strategic concept, makes some allusion to NATO's commitment to the security of both. However, full assurance can only come with a modification of article 6, as was done when Turkey joined. It seems unlikely that such a change will be announced.

The new Strategic Concept is sure to include the familiar references to the alliteration of threats and risks from space and cyberspace, cognitive space, technology, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, climate change, pandemics and growing urbanisation. Among all this cacophony of security challenges, it is important to be attentive to the new Strategic Concept's treatment of China, whose behaviour has already been viewed with concern by allies at the Brussels Summit in June 2021. Without closing the door to cooperation, NATO's greater involvement in the Indo-Pacific region can be envisaged.

A new Strategic Concept, at final, more in line with today's security landscape, will require a greater effort by allies and a greater investment of human, material and financial resources for the benefit of their own security.