Can the birth rate curve in Spain be reversed?

What are the causes and consequences of the declining birth rate curve? Dolores Lopez, professor of Geography at the School of Philosophy and Lettersinvestigates some of the social, demographic, economic and personal reasons that have led to what is known as"demographic winter".

In 2024 there was a slight increase in the issue of births in Spain, according to data from the National Statistics Institute (INE). However, the demographic curve continues to decline: the issue of children per woman in Spain is 1.12. As Dolores López explains, "this phenomenon has an impact on the population structure, and the fact is that we live in an increasingly aging society. However, this has a good side: it means that efforts to increase life expectancy are bearing fruit, but it also has its challenges, because a very aging society requires specific governance challenges.

Diagnosis: multiple causes

As stated in his article El challenge de la conciliación work y familia, ¿qué estamos estamos jugando, one of the reasons that hinder the arrival of the first child in the family is the reconciliation between work and home: "Not having a stable employment and economic independence has been revealed as the factor to which women give more importance, according to the fertility survey (INE). And, in a conflict between work and family, they opt for work. In countries such as France or Scandinavia, there are specific policies that favor family reconciliation". However, she adds that women's biological clock associated with fertility does not slow down.

Another of the causes that the researcher points out to explain this phenomenon is the environmental crisis: "Young people have a profoundly negative view of the future of the planet, and they see it as a selfish act to bring a child into a world whose future they see as black". At the same time, he also affirms that there are young people who wish to have children, but confess that finding a partner with whom to share a life project is complicated: "Demographers do not usually pay so much attention to personal relationships, but it is one of the aspects that most affect the delay in the birth rate". This reality translates into the origin of new family models, such as those who wish to be single parents, which in turn leads to a change in social Structures .

Some consequences and challenges

The falling birth rate has many consequences, although they can become challenges for society. "What we are currently seeing is that the population pyramid is beginning to reverse, and there is a great imbalance between the cohorts of the different generations," adds Dolores. Population aging means, for example, greater dependence on the pension system, so "promoting government policies is one of the challenges for the future".

"The great consequence of population aging is loneliness. We are living longer, the onset of diseases has been delayed and life expectancy is increasing. But older people are increasingly lonely," he explains. In his research The challenge of demographic aging. Contributions from the work and family relationship, she points out some of the causes: the busy life and individualistic society in which we live cause the weakening of family relationships.

The phenomenon of migration has also had a great impact in Spain, although its consequences on demographics have been very positive: "In terms of the birth rate, the arrival of migrants has been beneficial. Women, who are younger than the natives, have a higher fertility level, so the impact on the birth issue is positive".

Weakening of relationships, at the root of the problem

"All of us demographers can draw the fertility curve and look at economic, social or sociological causes, but I think we should not forget the transcendental vision of life," Dolores explains. In her research, she has tried to understand the foundations that give reasons for the fall in the birth rate: the weakening of personal bonds, the impact that society's individualism has on us and the dialectical confrontation between men and women.

Against this backdrop, Dolores concludes that building social alliances becomes difficult: "And we must not forget that at the base of society is the family. The family nucleus is the best example of alliances between generations and sexes, where strong bonds are generated, such as filiation and fraternity. And where we learn from a project of shared love. As Rafael Alvira used to say, the family is the place to which one returns. But what happens if it is an empty place?