"Putin now has two possibilities: to insist on keeping Ukraine under his influence or to ensure the maintenance of Russian troops there without aspiring to integrate it".
Three University experts discuss the geopolitical context and economic consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict one month after the invasion.
FotoManuelCastells/From left to right, Professor Antonio Moreno, Professor María Teresa Gil Bazo and Elena Terán, managerof speechwith Students of the University's speechservice, who moderated the session. Professor Salvador Sánchez Tapia, on the screen, intervened online.
24 | 03 | 2022
One month after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, three experts from the University of Navarra, professors Salvador Sánchez Tapia, María Teresa Gil Bazo and Antonio Moreno, analysed in a session some of the keys to the conflict that has put the international order established since World War II in check. "After a month of fighting, Putin has seen that he is not achieving his goal; that is why he is now revising his strategy, which implies reviewing objectives, resources and procedures. From now on, two possibilities are open: that he continues to insist on his intention to keep Ukraine in his area of influence, or that he redefines the plan and decides to ensure the maintenance of Russian troops in Ukraine without aspiring to integrate it", explained Salvador Sánchez Tapia.
Sánchez Tapia is a Brigadier General, professor of International Office at the University of Navarra, conflict analyst and expert on international security and defence issues. "Since the beginning of the invasion, there have been several errors, not only in the execution but also in the calculation of Ukraine's capacity to resist", he added.
María Teresa Gil Bazo, professor of international law, spoke about the refugees: 'It is interesting to note that, because of their geographical position, refugees from Ukraine can only flee to the European Union, and the EU has responded by granting temporary protection. For this to happen, all member states have to agree agreement; the EU has achieved this unanimous position on the reception of Ukrainian refugees in just one week".
Gil Bazo, who has been a lecturer in international human rights and refugee law at Oxford University and an external expert at the EU Asylum Agency, explained that this temporary protection directive, which the European Union adopted in 2001 and which had never been used before, "obliges member states to give temporary protection not only to Ukrainians, but also to refugees from any country that Ukraine has taken in and to all foreigners permanently residing in Ukraine".
The generalisation of economic sanctions as a weapon
For his part, Antonio Moreno, professor at the University of Navarra and Full Professor and PhD in Economics from Columbia University, referred to the effects of the economic sanctions applied to Russia. "Despite the negative implications they have not only for Russia, but also for the rest of the countries, these sanctions are justified from a moral point of view. The important thing is for this war to end as soon as possible," he commented. Some of these consequences that the macroeconomics and monetary policy expert referred to are inflation, shortages or the change of monetary policy cycle. "Another consequence is the generalization of sanctions as an economic policy weapon. We are going to a block policy status in which sanctions are going to be generalized."
