"The coronavirus has already infected the internship totality of African countries -54 out of 55, all except Lesotho- to a greater or lesser extent-1800 confirmed deaths- and threatens to change lifestyles". So says David Soler Crespo in an informativearticle published in Africaye.org. Soler is researcher junior at the Navarra Center for International Development (ICS), which is part of the Institute for Culture and Society (ICS) of the University of Navarra.

"The African continent has been quick and swift in adopting measures, but despite this, in the last week the number of cases has still increased by 60% and the World Health Organization (WHO) assures that Africa will be the next epicenter of a pandemic," he explains. However, he recalls that up to fifty African intellectuals have rejected this prediction in a letter.

On the other hand, he stresses that the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) foresees, in the best case scenario, 300,000 deaths and more than 122 million people infected, 10% of the total population. "In the worst case scenario, without measures, 100% of the African population would be infected and 3.3 million people would die," he comments.

According to David Soler, the two most likely scenarios in the lists would be those in which between 1.5 and 2.4 million deaths are expected, depending on the Degree physical distance, if the contact is reduced by 75% or 45%.

However, not all countries would be affected equally," he argues. In a continent of 55 countries, the phases of the coronavirus progress at different rates and some nations are more vulnerable than others". 

Advantages and disadvantages of dealing with the pandemic

Soler points out that Africa is at a disadvantage in some respects when it comes to dealing with the pandemic, although other factors mean that the African continent is a step ahead of other regions of the world. 

Regarding the former, he speaks of the continent having great experience in epidemics and other infectious diseases; civil society is very aware of the consequences of a lethal virus and there is a large number of NGOs that have worked in the field; early prevention measures have been adopted in the vast majority of countries; and it has the youngest population in the world, with a average age of 18 years and only 3% over 65 years of age.

In terms of disadvantages, it refers to the lack of sanitary means to be able to face an epidemic with guarantees; the high population density in cities; the lack of access to water and sanitation, which makes it difficult to take basic hygiene measures; and the precariousness of employment, which forces people to go out to work every day.

The original article is available here, published under licence Creative Commons BY-NC-ND.