Venezuela: The next six months

It has been a month since Nicolás Maduro was forced out, and Venezuela has undoubtedly entered a new phase. Above all, it is a change of pace. Events are unfolding at an unusual speed, even for a country accustomed to political volatility. The central question is not whether Venezuela is changing, which is very evident, but where that change is headed. Are we facing a democratic transition or a reconfiguration of power that prioritizes economic openness while maintaining limited political freedoms?

What has happened so far points to simultaneous transformations on three levels: economic, political, and social. In the economic sphere, the most striking sign has been the rapid approval of a new Hydrocarbons Law, which breaks with the model that has dominated since the Hugo Chávez era. The opening up to private and foreign capital suggests an urgency to revive a Economics and send clear signals to international markets. The speed of the process, rather than its content, reveals that those who govern today perceive time as a resource .

On the social level, change is less visible institutionally, but possibly more profound. There has been a gradual erosion of the fear that for years conditioned citizens' behavior, especially after the repression unleashed following the electoral theft of July 2024. Venezuelan society sample clear demand for democracy and is beginning to regain its voice. Self-censorship in the media is decreasing, discussion is reappearing, and social ties that had been broken by repression are being rebuilt. These processes are essential: no political transition is viable without a citizenry capable of expressing itself and deliberating freely.

Added to this is a closely related phenomenon: the incipient resurgence of free expression in social and media spaces that for years were dominated by intimidation and self-censorship. After a prolonged period marked by persecution, arbitrary detentions, and systematic silencing, signs of reappropriation of public space are beginning to appear, albeit still fragile. A word that was explicitly censored in Public discourse circulating strongly: transition. This thawing of fear is a core topic sociopolitical indicator core topic an indispensable condition for political change that is not limited to a simple readjustment of power.

At the same time, organized sectors of civil society have begun to urge citizens and political actors to act with greater determination to steer the country toward full democracy. These calls underscore the need to seize this historic moment to build an inclusive diary centered on the will of the people rather than on short-term interests.

We are also facing a real political turning point. The US intervention was executed with great precision from a military point of view, but it left important questions unanswered on the political front. The absence of a clearly defined roadmap for the day after has created a vacuum that risks being filled by familiar inertia and delaying tactics. Immediate stability seems to have taken precedence over the explicit definition of a democratization process, but only democracy offers sustainable stability in Venezuela in the medium term. The outcome of this moment will depend on how internal and external actors interact in this critical phase.

From an institutional standpoint, the framework establishes clear deadlines that should not be ignored. The Venezuelan Constitution provides for a maximum period of seven months to resolve a presidential vacancy before call . One of those months has already passed. Ideally, the country should be in a position to hold elections before that period ends. If this is not technically possible, there should at least have been clear progress in renewing the electoral authorities and presentation firm, public, and credible electoral calendar. Any ambiguity on this point seriously undermines the possibility of transition.

Time, however, favors those in power. Gradual improvement in economic conditions can reduce social pressure and facilitate political normalization without fundamental reforms. It is not just a matter of economic recovery, but of broader issues: international alignments, cooperation subject and the fight against transnational crime, as well as Venezuela's place in the regional balance of power.

Precisely for this reason, this moment must be exploited to the fullest. The window of opportunity is narrow and will not easily reopen. The next six months should be guided by a roadmap with clear and verifiable priorities. These include the immediate restoration of fundamental rights, an end to political persecution, the dismantling of social control mechanisms, and the launch of a reform of the judicial system that will restore confidence among both citizens and economic actors.

All of this must be accompanied by a genuine opening up of the public sphere: freedom of the media, the restoration of political pluralism, and the creation of inclusive bodies that allow for agreement on a credible path toward free and competitive elections, with civil service examination participation of the civil service examination civil society. Without tangible progress in these areas in the short term, any economic stabilization runs the risk of being based on instructions and becoming a merely superficial transition.

The pace of change has accelerated, which could be either an opportunity or a threat. Speed without direction leads to attrition. With a clear democratic roadmap, however, it could become the greatest asset of the moment. The next six months will not be just another period: they will determine whether Venezuela truly begins to emerge from a long era of authoritarianism or whether it merely changes form without changing substance, moving toward a dictatorship with foreign economic openness.

Carmen Beatriz Fernández is a professor of Political Communication at UNAV, IESA, and Pforzheim; she is a senior researcher at GASS.